ARLINGTON, Texas — Ladies and gentlemen, start your dissections.
Marcus Mariota's remarkable junior season came to a close Monday night in disheartening fashion, a 42-20 loss to Ohio State in the national championship game And now, unless the Heisman Trophy winner shocks the football world by returning to Oregon for his senior season, the scrutiny will begin.
At one point considered the heavy favorite to go No. 1 in the draft, that sentiment has begun to be questioned because of the spread system the Ducks run, his at times happy feet in the pocket and how his skills will translate to the next level against a different kind of athlete.
"It's like taking a guy that's a right-handed putter all his life and saying you're going to be a left-handed putter," said Gil Brandt, the one-time Cowboys player personnel executive and current NFL.com analyst. "What [Oregon does] on offense is really foreign to what we do in the National Football League."
Despite the loss, the general consensus among analysts was Mariota — who threw 42 touchdown passes this season and just four interceptions — didn't hurt or help his stock. While he did miss a few throws, and struggled against the Buckeyes' speedy and active defense, he was without two of his best wide receivers, Darren Carrington (suspension) and Devon Allen (knee), and was let down by a few drops that could have changed the game early on.
"I thought he played well last night, considering how overmatched the team was," Brandt said.
"Pretty much what I assumed all year: He is not a finished product as an NFL quarterback and there is going to be risk no matter where you draft him because he needs work to become a pocket [quarterback]," CBS Sports college football analyst Gary Danielson said. "I think he's willing, I think he's able, but the next step is a tough jump. It will, I believe, be a risky draft pick."
Said FOX Sports and NFL Network analyst Charles Davis: "Most of the people I talked to today have all said the same thing: There wasn't much different they saw in that game than they saw before. It confirmed their scouting to date.
Marcus Mariota gets sacked by Adolphus Washington during Oregon's 42-20 loss to Ohio State in the national championship game on Monday night.Photo: UPI
"If anything, he probably got a few extra marks for toughness."
Naturally, the conversations evolved into a Mariota versus Jameis Winston debate, the last two Heisman Trophy winners who are by far the two highest rated quarterbacks in this draft. Winston played in a pro-style offense at Florida State, doing most of his damage in the pocket. But unlike Mariota, there are off-the-field questions regarding Winston, from the alleged sexual assault to shoplifting crab legs and other transgressions.
"If it's just on-field ability, it's almost unanimous Winston is No. 1 on draft boards," Davis said. "But when you put off the field [issues] into it, the discussion is back on and that helps Marcus Mariota."
Brandt said he still feels both will be successful NFL quarterbacks. If he was looking down the road, he said he would take Mariota because he's a better athlete and he's quicker. Brandt also said he thinks Mariota has the better arm, though others disagree.
"If I'm drafting for today, I'm taking the FSU guy; if I'm drafting for two or three years from now, I think Mariota has the most upside," Brandt said.
Still, the question remains whether Mariota can adapt. The analysts all believe he has the arm strength and smarts to succeed. But running quarterbacks, with the exception of Cam Newton, have yet to thrive in the NFL, with Robert Griffin III the latest example. Danielson sees Mariota in the Alex Smith mold.
At the moment, Mariota's greatest strength is his legs. At the next level, it will have to be his arm.
"The biggest plays he makes come from his legs. It's a different style of football, a different league," Davis said. "He's going to need to make those plays from the pocket. Those super run-first quarterbacks get hurt or don't succeed. That's going to be an issue. Can he win from the pocket?
"He just doesn't have much experience [as a pocket passer]. You have to project him to be able to do that. That's a heck of a projection, to spend a top level pick on."
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