Time Warner’s stock hurts after rejecting Fox offer

Time Warner's decision not to accept Fox's cash and stock offer of $80 billion — or $85 per share — has so far put a lot of hurt on its shareholders.

The kind of hurt that may come back to haunt CEO Jeff Bewkes and the rest of Time's board.

Frankly, when you consider the fact that the offer seemed generous, you have to wonder why Bewkes said no, and seemed unwilling to even entertain negotiations. Perhaps it was the Hollywood media ego thing ruling the day, because there's just not a lot of top-line growth at the company, and it holds a whole lot of debt.

The stock plunged 15 percent when — after being unable to make headway — Fox pulled its offer on Wednesday.

Time Warner is highly leveraged at 92 percent debt load on this year's revenue, vs. 59 percent load on forward revenue at Fox.

Even if Fox's offer for the ailing Time Warner didn't meet Bewkes' price, it certainly is nothing to scoff at, not if one has slow growth and the company's shareholders in mind.

Time Warner chose to "grow it alone," a task Bewkes and his board may need to review.

For one thing, Time Warner has been spinning out and selling off assets for years now and the cupboards are almost bare — all that's left is the old Turner Broadcasting — TNT, TBS and CNN — and HBO.

Throughout the entire second quarter, Time Warner in total grew revenue a scant 2.7 percent, despite the HBO division growing 17 percent, compared to Fox's strong revenue growth of 17 percent. And Fox saw heady growth across the board — cable grew at 13 percent, film at an eye-popping 38 percent and satellite 16 percent. Where do you think the advertising dollars are going?

Bewkes had better be cognizant of the fact that you don't grow major media businesses by jettisoning everything you own and essentially becoming a one-trick pony (HBO).

Perhaps the board needs to remember an important rule: Don't look a gift horse in the mouth — it may be the only one you get.

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